德国制定"印太指导方针",欧洲国家“重返印太”趋势愈加明显

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作者:兰顺正

首发自:CGTN

德国制定

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克日,德国政府发布了一份名为“德国-欧洲-亚洲:共同塑造21世纪”的有关印太地区的政策指导方针。随后德国交际部网站印发文专门介绍了这份指导方指出台的背景。文章称,近几十年来越南、中国、印度等国家经济增长迅速,印太地区的经济和政治重要性正在增长,但与此同时,该地区战略竞争日益激烈,正成为“塑造21世纪国际秩序的关键”,其地缘政治权力布局的变化也对德国“产生了直接影响”。别的,德国外长马斯也就该指导方针发布声明,称德国发出了一个“明确信息”:印度洋-清静洋地区是德国交际政策的优先事项。不难看出的是,该指导方针预示了未来包括德国在内的欧洲国家对于印太地区的关注将会明显提升。

众所周知,“印太战略”是比年来特朗普政府热炒的一个话题,所谓“印太”,指的就是“印度洋—清静洋”区域,而美国的“印太战略”针对性很强,其焦点之一就是:弱化中国在“亚太”地区的影响力,密切关注中国日益频仍的海洋运动,部分国家筹谋组建遏制中国海洋运动的双边或多边安全合作机制等。但是关注印太并非某个国家的专利,随着印太地区日益成为天下经济和举世地缘政治的重心,一些欧洲国家也深刻地认识到欧洲的安全以及欧洲能否继续在举世发挥作用,很大程度上取决于其在印太地区能否发挥持续有用的影响力。为此,欧洲国家一段时间以来同样在努力探讨和制定最符合自身优点的“印太战略”。

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在欧洲国家中,法国对于“重返印太”体现得较为积极。历史上法国一度对柬埔寨、越南和老挝等三国实验过殖民统治。冷战结束以后,法国又开始重新到场东亚变乱,以填补美苏撤退留下的权力真空。在2008年,法国《国防与国家安全白皮书》就指出,法国除关注西非外,还应放眼整个印度洋和东亚地区。2017 年 5 月,马克龙当选法国总统后,愈加器重印太地缘战略态势,开始采用“灵巧打仗”战略以保护法国在印太地区的国家优点和重塑大国地位。该战略一方面积极发展与中国、印度、澳大利亚等地区国家的双边战略伙伴关系,另一方面论述法国对地区热门标题标看法和主张来提升地区存在感。2017年5月,法国水师“西北风”号两栖登陆舰和“库尔贝”号护卫抵达日本长崎佐世保军港,到场首次美、日、法、英四国团结军演。2018年5月2日,马克龙在访问澳大利亚时提出要在印太地区建立“巴黎—德里—堪培拉新战略轴心”,共同维护基于规则的地区秩序,守卫该地区不受“霸权主义”影响。在去年5月,法国国防部也发表了《法国印太防务战略》报告,全面论述了印太地区的安全形势、法国的印太防务战略以及法国将接纳的步伐。

而在英国的“举世英国”战略中,印太同样非常重要。2016年10月2日,时任英国宰衡的特蕾莎·梅在发言中首次提出“举世英国”战略构想, 强调伴随着“脱欧”英国应重新定义自己, 主张英国要“逾越欧洲”并在更广阔的举世层面担负新脚色, 目标是让英国重新获得举世身份及影响力。在“举世英国”构想下,英国的印太战略目标主要包括:1刚强地重返苏伊士运河以东,体现并加强英国在印太的安全存在;2同印太主要经济体缔结贸易协定,为“后脱欧期间”发展同该地区的经贸关系做好预备,以抵消其“脱欧”后在欧洲的战略损失。在英国看来,印度可以成为英国在印太重要的战略支点和倚重的合作伙伴,英印合作也符合印度“东进”战略的诉求;同时日本政府自2016年起也在谋求实现“自由开放的印太”目标 ;再加上历史上英国与印度和日本都素有渊源,以是比年来英国与印日两国在有关印太地区变乱的合作上有升温之势。

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至于德国,其与英法两国特殊是法国优点趋同,对于印太地区的态度比力一致,但是在从前德国对于印太并无太多的明显动作,而此次指导方针的出台标志着未来德国在该地区可能投入更多的精力。别的通过分析随后德方围绕该指导方针做出的一系列表示,可以看出德国的“印太战略”相对中国具有两面性。此次德国外长马斯声称,德国未来几十的繁荣和地缘政治影响将“取决于和印太国家的合作方式”,那里比任何地都更能决定未来国际秩序的形态,而德国希望帮助建立这一秩序“使之建立在规则和国际合作基础上,而非建立在强者的法律之上。”马斯在发言中指出:“我们在此中强化多极天下思想,在这样的天下中,任何国家都不必在两个权力极之间做出选择”。 马斯虽未点名,但德国《天下报》以为其话中所指就是美国和中国。报道指出,美国总统特朗普频频命令西方国家与中国脱钩,必须在中美之间选边站,德国政府通过上述决定果断拒绝了这一要求。同时德国与中国保持着紧密的经济联系,政府希望保护德国的经济优点。由于比年来德美关系跌到战后以来的最低点,德国在军费开支、北溪2项目、华为等议题上都没有紧跟美国。因此马斯的发言影射了德国不会在印太变乱中与美国亦步亦趋针对中国。不过《天下报》同时指出,即使中国是德国最重要的贸易伙伴,柏林希望实现关系多样化,扩大布局,告竣更多自由贸易协议。遐想到在2019年11月,德国防长卡伦鲍尔曾宣称,澳大利亚、日本、韩国、印度等德国在印太地区的伙伴,正感受到“中国对权力的主张愈发侵占他们的优点”,“是时间让德国发出信号,与我们的盟友一同出如今该地区了。”以是由此推断未来德国在印太对于中国同样会有所生存。

综上,随着德国等欧洲国家都开始“重返印太”,未来印太地区的局势将会变得更加复杂。

(以下为英文原版)

European countries are 'returning to the Indo-Pacific'

Lan Shunzheng

德国制定

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Editor's note: Lan Shunzheng is a research fellow at Charhar Institute and a member of the Chinese Institute of Command and Control. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Last week, the German government released a policy guideline for the Indo-Pacific region called "Germany-Europe-Asia: Shaping the 21st Century Together," when Vietnam, China, India and other countries in the region have experienced rapid economic growth. At the same time, the strategic competition in the region has grown more fierce and is becoming a "key" in shaping the 21st century's international order. The economic and political significance of Indo-Pacific region has increased drastically. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas issued a statement saying that Germany is sending a "clear message" that the Indo-Pacific region is a priority for German foreign policy. It is not hard to foretell a future in which European countries will pay much more attention to the Indo-Pacific region.

As is known to all, the "Indo-Pacific strategy" has been developed in recent years by the U.S. with one objective: to check China's growing clout in the region. But many countries are focusing in this region. As the Indo-Pacific region becomes the focus of the world economy and global geopolitics, some European countries have realized that the European security and Europe's ability to continue to play a role in the whole world, largely depends on its sustained and effective influence in the Indo-Pacific region. For this reason, European countries have been trying to explore and formulate the "Indo-Pacific strategy" in the best interests of themselves.

Among European countries, France is more active in "returning to the Indo-Pacific." In 2008, France's White Paper on National Defense and National Security pointed out that France should look to the entire Indian Ocean and East Asia. After Emmanuel Macron was elected president, he paid more attention to the geo-strategic posture of India and the Pacific and began to adopt the strategy of "smart engagement" to protect France's national interests in the Indo-Pacific region and restore its status as a great power there.

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French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during the opening ceremony of the second China International Import Expo in Shanghai, China, November 5, 2019. /VCG

On the one hand, the strategy actively develops bilateral strategic partnerships with China, India, Australia and other regional countries; on the other hand, it expounds France's views and propositions on regional hotspot issues to enhance its regional presence, such as proposing the establishment of a "Paris-Delhi-Canberra new strategic axis" in the Indo-Pacific region to jointly safeguard the rule-based regional order in 2018. In May last year, the French Ministry of Defense also published a report entitled "France's Defense Strategy in the Indo-Pacific," comprehensively discussed the security situation and France's strategy in the region.

For the UK, India has been an important part of its "global Britain" strategy. Under this idea, Britain's strategic objectives in Indo-Pacific mainly include firmly returning to the east of Suez Canal to manifest and strengthen Britain's security presence in the Indo-Pacific and reaching trade agreements with major economies in the region to prepare for the post-Brexit era and offset their strategic losses in Europe. From Britain's point of view, India can become an important strategic fulcrum and reliable cooperative partner.

Cooperation between the UK and India meets the demands of India's eastward advance strategy.

Meanwhile, the Japanese government has been pursuing the goal of a "free and open Indo-Pacific" since 2016. Britain has a long history with Japan. Therefore, in recent years, cooperation between Britain, India, and Japan on Indo-Pacific affairs has been heating up.

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson attends a news conference on the novel coronavirus in London, UK, March 3, 2020. /Reuters

As for Germany, its interests are similar to those of the UK and France, and its attitude towards the Indo-Pacific region is relatively consistent. Analyzing the subsequent statements made by the German side around the guidelines, it can be seen that Germany's "Indo-Pacific strategy" has two sides. The German foreign minister Maas claims that Germany's prosperity and geopolitical influence in the future will be dependent on the cooperation of countries in Indo-Pacific, and that Germany wants to help to "reinforce the idea of a multipolar world in which no country has to choose between two poles of power." Maas did not name names, but German newspaper Die Welt said he was referring to the United States and China.

According to the report, the German government has firmly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's repeated call for Western countries to decouple from China and choose a side between the two countries. Germany is maintaining close economic ties with China and the government is hoping to protect Germany's economic interests. With relations between Germany and the United States at their lowest point since the Second World War, Maas's speech indicates that Germany will not follow America's lead in Indo-Pacific affairs to antagonize China. But Le Monde also noted that even though China is Germany's most important trading partner, Berlin wants to diversify its relations and reach more free trade agreements.

Recalling that in November 2019, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer declared that Germany's partners in the Indo-Pacific, including Australia, Japan, South Korea and India, were feeling "it is time for Germany to send a signal to be present in the region along with our allies," it can be inferred that China wouldn't be Germany's sole focus in the region.

To sum up, as Germany and other European countries begin to "return to the Indo-Pacific," the situation in that region will become more complicated in the future.


来源:https://www.toutiao.com/a6872551328133054987/
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